The races that decide Texas

Updated September 30, 2026. Closest races first. Ratings come from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Where no forecaster rates a race, we note the poll or the target list it's on. Congressional races use the 2025 map, which the U.S. Supreme Court allowed for 2026. Legislative races use the current Texas Senate and Texas House maps.

Look up your address to see which of these are on your ballot.

Statewide

Closest racesStatewide

U.S. Senate

Republican: Ken Paxton
vs. James Talarico (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Ted Brown (Libertarian)

Rating: Toss-up (Cook Political Report: Toss Up, 2026-08-20; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up, 2026-08-26)

Last time: 2020: Republican won by about 9.6 points (not re-verified)

Late-September polls range from a tie to Talarico +6.

Closest racesStatewide

Railroad Commissioner

Republican: Bo French
vs. Jon Rosenthal (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Arthur DiBianca (Libertarian)

Rating: Competitive (poll within 2 points) (Texas Southern University poll: French 44, Rosenthal 42, 2026-09-18)

Last time: Not verified

Possibly the closest statewide race below the U.S. Senate.

Statewide

Governor

Republican: Greg Abbott (incumbent)
vs. Gina Hinojosa (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Pat Dixon (Libertarian)

Rating: Likely Republican (Cook Political Report: Likely R, 2026-08-20; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely R, 2026-08-26)

Last time: 2022: Republican won by about 10.9 points

Texas Southern University (Sept): Abbott 49, Hinojosa 45.

Statewide

Attorney General

Republican: Mayes Middleton
vs. Nathan Johnson (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Tom Oxford (Libertarian)

Rating: Lean Republican (poll-based; no forecaster rating found) (Texas Southern University poll: Middleton +5, 2026-09-18)

Last time: 2022: Republican won by about 11 points

Statewide

Lieutenant Governor

Republican: Dan Patrick (incumbent)
vs. Vikki Goodwin (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Anthony Cristo (Libertarian), Kevin McCormick (Green)

Rating: Lean Republican (poll-based; no forecaster rating found) (Texas Southern University poll: Patrick +6, 2026-09-18)

Last time: 2022: Republican won by about 11 points

Statewide

Agriculture Commissioner

Republican: Nate Sheets
vs. Clayton Tucker (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Austin R. Kelly (Libertarian)

Rating: Lean Republican (poll-based) (Texas Southern University poll: Sheets +6, 2026-09-18)

Last time: Not verified

Statewide

Comptroller of Public Accounts

Republican: Don Huffines (incumbent)
vs. Sarah Eckhardt (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza (Libertarian), Shehla Faizi (Green)

Rating: Lean Republican (poll-based) (Texas Southern University poll: Huffines +8, 2026-09-18)

Last time: Not verified

Statewide

Land Commissioner

Republican: Dawn Buckingham (incumbent)
vs. Benjamin Flores (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Neill Snider (Libertarian)

Rating: Lean Republican (poll-based) (Texas Southern University poll: Buckingham +8, 2026-09-18)

Last time: Not verified

U.S. House (Congress)

Closest racesU.S. House (Congress)

U.S. House, District 15

Republican: Monica De La Cruz (incumbent)
vs. Bobby Pulido (Democrat)

Rating: Toss-up (Cook Political Report: Toss Up, 2026-09-25; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up, 2026-08-26; Inside Elections: Tilt R, 2026-08-20)

Last time: 2024: Republican won by 14.2 points (old lines); Trump won the new lines by 18

Texas Southern University (Aug): Pulido 50, De La Cruz 45.

County coverage for this district is still being confirmed.

Closest racesU.S. House (Congress)

U.S. House, District 34

Republican: Eric Flores
vs. Vicente Gonzalez (incumbent) (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Chris Royal (Libertarian), Eddie Espinoza (Green)

Rating: Toss-up (Cook Political Report: Toss Up, 2026-09-25; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans D, 2026-09-29)

Last time: 2024: Democrat won by 2.6 points (old lines); Trump won the new lines by about 10

Texas Southern University (Aug): Gonzalez 45, Flores 42.

County coverage for this district is still being confirmed.

Closest racesU.S. House (Congress)

U.S. House, District 35

Republican: Carlos De La Cruz
vs. Johnny C. Garcia (Democrat)

Rating: Lean Republican (Cook Political Report: Lean R, 2026-09-25; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans R, 2026-08-26; Inside Elections: Lean R, 2026-09-03)

Last time: New district; Trump won the new lines by about 10

Democratic group's internal poll: De La Cruz 45, Garcia 44.

County coverage for this district is still being confirmed.

U.S. House (Congress)

U.S. House, District 28

Republican: Tano E. Tijerina
vs. Henry Cuellar (incumbent) (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Marlón Durán (Green)

Rating: Lean Democratic (Cook Political Report: Lean D, 2026-09-25; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans D, 2026-08-26)

Last time: 2024: Democrat won by 5.6 points (old lines); Trump won the new lines by about 10

Texas Southern University (Aug): Cuellar 45, Tijerina 34.

County coverage for this district is still being confirmed.

U.S. House (Congress)

U.S. House, District 9

Republican: Alex Mealer
vs. Leticia Gutierrez (Democrat)

Rating: Likely Republican (Cook Political Report: Likely R, 2026-09-25; Inside Elections: Likely R, 2026-09-17)

Last time: New district; Trump won the new lines by about 20

County coverage for this district is still being confirmed.

U.S. House (Congress)

U.S. House, District 23

Republican: Brandon Herrera
vs. Katy Padilla Stout (Democrat)
Also on the ballot: Ben Mendoza (Independent)

Rating: Likely Republican (Cook Political Report: Likely R, 2026-09-25; Inside Elections: Likely R, 2026-05-08)

Last time: 2024: Republican won by 24.6 points

Republican poll (Aug): Herrera 47, Padilla Stout 41.

County coverage for this district is still being confirmed.

Texas Senate

Closest racesTexas Senate

Texas Senate, District 9

Republican: Leigh Wambsganss
vs. Taylor Rehmet (incumbent) (Democrat)

Rating: Competitive (Democratic target) (KERA News: Rematch, 2026-09-24)

Last time: Jan 2026 special runoff: Democrat won by 14.6. 2022 regular: Republican won by 20

Texas Senate

Texas Senate, District 19

Republican: Marcus Cardenas
vs. Roland Gutierrez (incumbent) (Democrat)

Rating: Competitive (The Texan: Runoff winner advances, 2026-05-26)

Last time: 2022: Democrat won by 10.8; Harris carried it by about 1.4 in 2024

Texas Senate

Texas Senate, District 21

Republican: Julie Dahlberg
vs. Judith Zaffirini (incumbent) (Democrat)

Rating: Not rated by forecasters

Last time: 2022: Democrat won by 25.6 (Zaffirini 61.6%, Dahlberg 35.9%)

Texas House of Representatives

Closest racesTexas House of Representatives

Texas House, District 118

Republican: Jorge Borrego
vs. Kristian Carranza (Democrat)

Rating: Toss-up (top Democratic target) (Texas Tribune (DLCC target list): Target, 2026-06-03)

Last time: 2024: Republican won by 3.4

Widely called the most competitive Texas House seat.

Closest racesTexas House of Representatives

Texas House, District 121

Republican: Marc LaHood (incumbent)
vs. Zack Dunn (Democrat)

Rating: Competitive (Democratic target) (Texas Tribune (DLCC target list): Target, 2026-06-03)

Last time: 2024: Republican won by 5.0

Closest racesTexas House of Representatives

Texas House, District 112

Republican: Angie Chen Button (incumbent)
vs. Zach Herbert (Democrat)

Rating: Competitive (Democratic target) (Texas Tribune (DLCC target list): Target, 2026-06-03)

Last time: 2024: Republican won by 7.8

Closest racesTexas House of Representatives

Texas House, District 34

Republican: Denise Villalobos (incumbent)
vs. Stephanie Guerrero Saenz (Democrat)

Rating: Competitive (Democratic target) (Texas Tribune (DLCC target list): Target, 2026-06-03)

Last time: 2024: Republican won by about 10.8; Trump won by 1.4

Closest racesTexas House of Representatives

Texas House, District 41

Republican: Gary Groves
vs. Julio Salinas (Democrat)

Rating: Competitive (Texas Tribune: Runoffs decided, 2026-05-23)

Last time: 2024: Democrat won by 7.0; Trump won by 1.6

Closest racesTexas House of Representatives